Publications and Working Papers

Forecasting Job Placements of Economics Graduate Students (with Alan B. Krueger), Journal of Economic Education, Winter 2000

Abstract: This article identifies the characteristics of applicants to graduate school in economics that predict successful job placement after completion of graduate school. Although there is considerable uncertainty in predicting the success of prospective Ph.D. students, the results indicate that GRE scores, reference writers, and admissions committee ratings are significant predictors of job placement.

Adapting to Heart Conditions: A Test of the Hedonic Treadmill, Journal of Health Economics, July 2001

Abstract: This paper tests the hypothesis of hedonic adaptation by analyzing the role that a history of heart problems has on the ability to deal with future heart conditions. The results show that those who have had a heart condition in the past are less likely to report worse self-assessed health and emotional health due to the onset of a new condition than those who have not previously had exposure to heart trouble. The results are fairly supportive of the notion of a hedonic treadmill.

The Effects of Health Events on the Economic Status of Married Couples, Journal of Human Resources, Winter 2003

Abstract: There is a growing literature showing the relationship between health and economic status, though little research has focused on distinguishing between the effects for men and women. I use measures of exogenous health “shocks” to identify the different channels through which changes in health conditions affect income, wealth and consumption behavior of couples. The results indicate that serious health conditions have strong effects on household wealth, but that the effects for women are larger and more significant than the effects for men. The source of the asymmetry arises from the fact that general living expenses increase when wives become seriously ill, while for husbands, health shocks do not affect theses expenditures.

Sickness and Preventive Medical Behavior, Journal of Health Economics, July 2003

Abstract: Using data from two sources, the Health and Retirement Study and the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, I analyze the relationship between health status and the likelihood of engaging in medical screening and other preventive behavior. The results show that individuals who are generally in poorer health are more likely to get flu shots and cholesterol checks, but less likely to have mammograms, pap smears, breast exams and prostate checks. There is some evidence that suggests that psychological factors such as fear and anxiety may be important reasons why sicker people are less likely to get cancer screens.

Portfolio Choice and Health Status (with Harvey S. Rosen), Journal of Financial Economics, June 2004

Abstract: This paper analyzes the role that health status plays in household portfolio decisions using data from the first wave of the Health and Retirement Study. The results indicate that health is a significant predictor of both the probability of owning different types of financial assets and the share of financial wealth held in each asset category. Households in poor health are less likely to hold both safe and risky financial assets, other things (including the level of total wealth) being the same. Poor health is associated with a smaller share of financial wealth held in risky assets and a larger share in safe assets. We find no evidence that the cross sectional relationship between health status and portfolio allocation is driven by “third variables” that simultaneously affect health and financial decisions. Further, the relationship between health status and portfolio choice is robust to the inclusion of a number of variables relating to individuals’ attitudes toward risk and their planning horizons.

Where do Faculty Receive their PhDs? A Comparison Across Six Disciplines, Academe, July/August 2005

Abstract: This paper studies the doctoral origins of faculty at top research universities and liberal arts colleges across six different disciplines: chemistry, economics, english, history, mathematics and sociology. The results show that in general, a large proportion of faculty receive their doctorates from a select group of top PhD granting institutions within their field. However, these concentration ratios vary significantly across discipline as well between research universities and liberal arts colleges.

Fatalistic Tendencies: An Explanation of Why People Don’t Save, Contributions to Economic Analysis and Policy, September 2005

Abstract: This paper uses data from the 2001 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) and the 2000 World Values Survey (WVS) to analyze the role of fatalism in determining household savings behavior. SCF respondents who feel that luck has played an important role in their financial affairs are more likely to realize their need to save, but are less likely to actually do so. Cross-country evidence from the WVS shows that those who believe they have little freedom and control over their lives are also less likely to save. The results hold after controlling for a number of demographic and behavioral factors, and are consistent across income and wealth levels.

Recent Publishing Trends at the AER, JPE and QJE, Applied Economics Letters, January 2007

Abstract: This note summarizes recent trends in institutional affiliation of authors who publish in three leading general interest journals, American Economic Review, Journal of Political Economy, and Quarterly Journal of Economics. The statistics show that well over forty percent of the pages published in the QJE between 2000 and 2003 are by authors affiliated with one of four institutions. This represents a significant increase from analogous figures during the 1980s and earlier periods. The concentrations of affiliations are not as high at the AER or JPE, but they still show a reversal of the declining trend in concentration that occurred from 1950-1989.

The Search for Economics Talent: Doctoral Completion and Research Productivity (with Wayne A. Grove), American Economic Review, May 2007

Abstract: The search for talent is of particular interest to economists; in fact, nothing unites academic economists’ interest like speculation about the causes of two key measures of success in their profession: completion of the doctorate and success in publishing. We assess both outcomes by using a rich set of pre-graduate school characteristics to forecast both success in the Ph.D. program and professional achievement. Using information contained in application files to a top 5 economics Ph.D. program in 1989, we predict the determinants of doctoral degree completion and research productivity 17 years later. The results suggest that several variables consistently predict degree completion and long run research productivity: quantitative GRE scores, having a foreign undergraduate degree, and the quality of the individuals who write letters of reference.

Is Trade Good for Your Health? (with Ann L. Owen), Review of International Economics, September 2007

Abstract: We use a panel of 219 countries to examine the relationship between a country’s openness to international trade and several health outcomes and find that, in general, increased openness is associated with lower rates of infant mortality and higher life expectancies, especially in developing countries. We find evidence suggesting that some of the positive correlation between trade and health can be attributed to knowledge spillovers. In addition, openness is associated with sound economic policies which themselves are related to better health outcomes.

Financial Shocks and Worry about the Future (with Ann L. Owen), Empirical Economics, November 2007

Abstract: Using data from the Health and Retirement Study and the Survey of Consumer Finances, we show that households that experience adverse financial shocks worry more about the adequacy of their financial resources in retirement, even after controlling for the effects of these shocks on overall wealth. We find supporting evidence that suggests that at least part of the increased worry about retirement is due to general pessimism rather than changes in an individual’s own circumstances. Specifically, experiencing idiosyncratic financial shocks is also associated with greater pessimism about the general future of the economy. Finally, we present some suggestive evidence that links the increased level of worry to reduced consumption.

Identity and Environmentalism: The Influence of Community Characteristics (with Ann L. Owen and Julio Videras), Review of Social Economy, forthcoming

Abstract: This paper examines the influence of community characteristics on self-proclaimed environmentalism. We find that the composition of a community affects the likelihood that a person claims to be a strong environmentalist, even after controlling for individual characteristics and pro-environment behaviors. Individuals are more likely to definitely agree they are strong environmentalists if they live in areas where a large share of the population has post-graduate degrees and if they live in heavily Democratic areas or heavily Republican areas. These community effects occur only when individuals are predisposed to take on an environmental identity.

More Information Isn’t Always Better: The Case of Voluntary Provision of Environmental Quality (with Ann L. Owen and Julio Videras)

Abstract: We use a new U.S. survey on pro-environment behaviors, attitudes, and knowledge and find that individuals engage in activities that they believe are more effective in reducing carbon emissions, regardless of whether or not these beliefs are accurate. We find that low provision of the public good is greater among people who believe they cannot do much for the environment and do not consider themselves environmentalists. A policy implication of the results is that the effect of more accurate information on the provision of the public good is ambiguous.

Early Decision and College Performance (with Elizabeth J. Jensen)

Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between admission status and college performance. In particular, we analyze admissions data from Hamilton College and find that students who applied through the Early Decision Plan II program have significantly lower GPAs and are less likely to receive departmental honors, fellowships, and outside scholarships than those admitted through the regular decision process. However, the results for Early Decision Plan I students are less consistent. These students have lower outcomes for some measures of academic achievement than regular decision students.

Out of (their) Control: Fatalists, Effort and Savings Behavior (with Joel Shapiro)

Abstract: We examine the impact of fatalism, the belief that one has little or no control over future events, on the decision of whether or not to save. We develop a model that predicts that fatalism decreases savings for moderately risk averse individuals, increases savings for highly risk averse individuals, and otherwise has no impact. Furthermore, fatalism decreases effort in learning about savings and investment options. We use data from National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) and find general support for the theoretical predictions of the model. The results are robust to the inclusion of a number of additional control variables.

Lost in Translation? The Economics Phd Pipeline for U.S. vs. Foreign Applicants (with Andrew Grodner and Wayne A. Grove)

Abstract: Because the success of Ph.D. programs and their graduates is one of the major criteria by which Economics departments are evaluated externally, it is important to study the determinants of success for prospective candidates. To address this issue, we analyze factors affecting attendance, graduation, and job placement of Ph.D. applicants using a unique dataset from a single top five Economics program in 1989. Using the entire sample of applicants, we find that three predictor variables—GRE scores, the quality of the reference writers, and having a foreign undergraduate education—predict attendance, completion, and initial job placement. When we split the samples according to whether the undergraduate education occurred in the U.S. or abroad, the determinants of success at each stage differ entirely by type of applicant, with the exception of the consistent role played by quantitative GRE scores. Our results have important implications for effective applicant selection criteria used by the graduate search committees.