Publications and Working Papers
Forecasting
Job Placements of Economics Graduate Students (with Alan B. Krueger), Journal
of Economic Education, Winter 2000
Abstract: This article identifies the characteristics of
applicants to graduate school in economics that predict successful job
placement after completion of graduate school. Although there is considerable
uncertainty in predicting the success of prospective Ph.D. students, the
results indicate that GRE scores, reference writers, and admissions committee
ratings are significant predictors of job placement.
Adapting to Heart
Conditions: A Test of the Hedonic Treadmill, Journal of Health Economics, July 2001
Abstract: This paper tests the hypothesis of hedonic
adaptation by analyzing the role that a history of heart problems has on the
ability to deal with future heart conditions.
The results show that those who have had a heart condition in the past
are less likely to report worse self-assessed health and emotional health due
to the onset of a new condition than those who have not previously had exposure
to heart trouble. The results are fairly
supportive of the notion of a hedonic treadmill.
The Effects of
Health Events on the Economic Status of Married Couples, Journal of Human Resources, Winter 2003
Abstract: There is a growing
literature showing the relationship between health and economic status, though
little research has focused on distinguishing between the effects for men and
women. I use measures of exogenous
health “shocks” to identify the different channels through which changes in
health conditions affect income, wealth and consumption behavior of couples.
The results indicate that serious health conditions have strong effects on
household wealth, but that the effects for women are larger and more
significant than the effects for men.
The source of the asymmetry arises from the fact that general living
expenses increase when wives become seriously ill, while for husbands, health
shocks do not affect theses expenditures.
Sickness and
Preventive Medical Behavior, Journal of Health Economics, July 2003
Abstract: Using data from two sources, the Health and
Retirement Study and the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, I analyze the
relationship between health status and the likelihood of engaging in medical
screening and other preventive behavior.
The results show that individuals who are generally in poorer health are
more likely to get flu shots and cholesterol checks, but less likely to have
mammograms, pap smears, breast exams and prostate checks. There is some evidence that suggests that
psychological factors such as fear and anxiety may be important reasons why
sicker people are less likely to get cancer screens.
Portfolio
Choice and Health Status (with Harvey S. Rosen), Journal of Financial Economics, June
2004
Abstract: This paper analyzes the role that health status
plays in household portfolio decisions using data from the first wave of the
Health and Retirement Study. The results
indicate that health is a significant predictor of both the probability of
owning different types of financial assets and the share of financial wealth
held in each asset category. Households
in poor health are less likely to hold both safe and risky financial assets,
other things (including the level of total wealth) being the same. Poor health is associated with a smaller
share of financial wealth held in risky assets and a larger share in safe
assets. We find no evidence that the
cross sectional relationship between health status and portfolio allocation is
driven by “third variables” that simultaneously affect health and financial
decisions. Further, the relationship
between health status and portfolio choice is robust to the inclusion of a
number of variables relating to individuals’ attitudes toward risk and their
planning horizons.
Where do Faculty Receive their PhDs? A Comparison Across Six Disciplines, Academe, July/August 2005
Abstract: This paper studies the doctoral origins of faculty at
top research universities and liberal arts colleges across six different
disciplines: chemistry, economics, english, history, mathematics and
sociology. The results show that in
general, a large proportion of faculty receive their doctorates from a select
group of top PhD granting institutions within their field. However, these concentration ratios vary
significantly across discipline as well between research universities and
liberal arts colleges.
Fatalistic
Tendencies: An Explanation of Why People Don’t Save, Contributions
to Economic Analysis and Policy, September 2005
Abstract:
This paper uses data from the 2001 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) and the
2000 World Values Survey (WVS) to analyze the role of fatalism in determining
household savings behavior. SCF
respondents who feel that luck has played an important role in their financial
affairs are more likely to realize their need to save, but are less likely to
actually do so. Cross-country evidence
from the WVS shows that those who believe they have little freedom and control
over their lives are also less likely to save.
The results hold after controlling for a number of demographic and
behavioral factors, and are consistent across income and wealth levels.
Recent
Publishing Trends at the AER, JPE and QJE, Applied
Economics Letters, January 2007
Abstract: This note summarizes recent trends in institutional
affiliation of authors who publish in three leading general interest journals, American Economic Review, Journal of
Political Economy, and Quarterly
Journal of Economics. The statistics
show that well over forty percent of the pages published in the QJE between
2000 and 2003 are by authors affiliated with one of four institutions. This represents a significant increase from
analogous figures during the 1980s and earlier periods. The concentrations of affiliations are not as
high at the AER or JPE, but they still show a reversal of the declining trend
in concentration that occurred from 1950-1989.
The
Search for Economics Talent: Doctoral Completion and Research Productivity (with Wayne A. Grove), American Economic Review, May 2007
Abstract: The search for talent is of particular interest to
economists; in fact, nothing unites academic economists’ interest like
speculation about the causes of two key measures of success in their
profession: completion of the doctorate and success in publishing. We assess both outcomes by using a rich set
of pre-graduate school characteristics to forecast both success in the Ph.D.
program and professional achievement.
Using information contained in application files to a top 5 economics
Ph.D. program in 1989, we predict the determinants of doctoral degree
completion and research productivity 17 years later. The results suggest that several variables consistently predict degree
completion and long run research productivity: quantitative GRE scores, having
a foreign undergraduate degree, and the quality of the individuals who write
letters of reference.
Is Trade Good for
Your Health? (with
Ann L. Owen), Review of International
Economics, September 2007
Abstract: We
use a panel of 219 countries to examine the relationship between a country’s
openness to international trade and several health outcomes and find that, in
general, increased openness is associated with lower rates of infant mortality
and higher life expectancies, especially in developing countries. We find evidence suggesting that some of the
positive correlation between trade and health can be attributed to knowledge
spillovers. In addition, openness is
associated with sound economic policies which themselves are related to better
health outcomes.
Financial
Shocks and Worry about the Future
(with Ann L. Owen), Empirical Economics,
November 2007
Abstract:
Using data from the Health and Retirement Study and the Survey of Consumer
Finances, we show that households that experience adverse financial shocks
worry more about the adequacy of their financial resources in retirement, even
after controlling for the effects of these shocks on overall wealth. We find supporting evidence that suggests
that at least part of the increased worry about retirement is due to general
pessimism rather than changes in an individual’s own circumstances. Specifically, experiencing idiosyncratic
financial shocks is also associated with greater pessimism about the general
future of the economy. Finally, we present
some suggestive evidence that links the increased level of worry to reduced
consumption.
Objective Confirmation of Subjective
Measures of Human Well-being: Evidence from the USA (with Andrew J.
Oswald), Science, January 2010
Abstract: A
huge research literature, across the behavioral and social sciences, uses
information on individuals’ subjective well-being. These are responses to questions -- asked by
survey interviewers or medical personnel -- such as “how happy do you feel on a
scale from 1 to 4?” Yet there is little
scientific evidence that such data are meaningful. This study examines a 2005-2008 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System random sample of
1.3 million United States citizens.
Life-satisfaction in each U.S. state is measured. Across America, people’s answers trace out
the same pattern of quality of life as previously estimated, using solely
non-subjective data, in a literature from economics (so-called ‘compensating
differentials’ neoclassical theory due originally to Adam Smith). There is a state-by-state match (r = 0.6, p
< 0.001) between subjective and objective well-being. This result also has some potential to help
to unify disciplines.
Identity
and Environmentalism: The Influence of Community Characteristics (with Ann L. Owen and Julio Videras), Review of Social Economy, forthcoming
Abstract: This paper examines the influence of community
characteristics on self-proclaimed environmentalism. We find that the composition of a community
affects the likelihood that a person claims to be a strong environmentalist,
even after controlling for individual characteristics and pro-environment
behaviors. Individuals are more likely to definitely agree they are strong
environmentalists if they live in areas where a large share of the population
has post-graduate degrees and if they live in heavily Democratic areas or
heavily Republican areas. These community effects occur only when individuals
are predisposed to take on an environmental identity.
Early Decision and College Performance (with Elizabeth J. Jensen), Economics of Education Review, forthcoming
Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between admission
status and college performance. In
particular, we analyze admissions data from Hamilton College and find that
students who applied through the Early Decision Plan II program have
significantly lower GPAs and are less likely to receive departmental honors,
fellowships, and outside scholarships than those admitted through the regular
decision process. However, the results
for Early Decision Plan I students are less consistent. These students have lower outcomes for some
measures of academic achievement than regular decision students.
More
Information Isn’t Always Better: The Case of Voluntary Provision of
Environmental Quality (with Ann
L. Owen and Julio Videras)
Abstract: We use a new U.S. survey on pro-environment behaviors,
attitudes, and knowledge and find that individuals engage in activities that
they believe are more effective in reducing carbon emissions, regardless of
whether or not these beliefs are accurate. We find that low provision of the
public good is greater among people who believe they cannot do much for the
environment and do not consider themselves environmentalists. A policy
implication of the results is that the effect of more accurate information on
the provision of the public good is ambiguous.
The
Effects of Daughters on Health Choices and Risk Behavior (with Nattavudh
Powdthavee and Andrew J. Oswald)
Abstract: Little is known about why some human beings make risky
life-choices. This paper provides
evidence that people’s health decisions and addictive actions are influenced by
the gender of their children. Having a daughter leads individuals -- in
micro data from
Out
of (their) Control: Fatalists, Effort and Savings Behavior (with Joel Shapiro)
Abstract: We examine
the impact of fatalism, the belief that one has little or no control over
future events, on the decision of whether or not to save. We develop a model
that predicts that fatalism decreases savings for moderately risk averse
individuals, increases savings for highly risk averse individuals, and
otherwise has no impact. Furthermore, fatalism decreases effort in learning
about savings and investment options. We use data from National Longitudinal
Survey of Youth (NLSY) and find general support for the theoretical predictions
of the model. The results are robust to the inclusion of a number of additional
control variables.
Lost in Translation? The Economics Phd Pipeline for
U.S. vs. Foreign Applicants (with
Andrew Grodner and Wayne A. Grove)
Abstract: Because the success of Ph.D. programs and their
graduates is one of the major criteria by which Economics departments are
evaluated externally, it is important to study the determinants of success for
prospective candidates. To address this
issue, we analyze factors affecting attendance, graduation, and job placement
of Ph.D. applicants using a unique dataset from a single top five Economics
program in 1989. Using the entire sample
of applicants, we find that three predictor variables—GRE scores, the quality
of the reference writers, and having a foreign undergraduate education—predict
attendance, completion, and initial job placement. When we split the samples
according to whether the undergraduate education occurred in the U.S. or
abroad, the determinants of success at each stage differ entirely by type of
applicant, with the exception of the consistent role played by quantitative GRE
scores. Our results have important implications for effective applicant
selection criteria used by the graduate search committees.
Well Being Across America: Evidence from a Sample
of One Million U.S. Citizens
(with Andrew J. Oswald)
Abstract: This paper uses new Behavioral
Risk Factor Surveillance System data to provide the first estimates of
well-being across the states of America.
From this sample of 1.3 million US citizens, we analyze measures of life
satisfaction and mental health.
Controlling for people’s characteristics, Louisiana and DC have high
psychological well-being levels while California and West Virginia have low
well-being. There is no correlation
between states’ well-being and their GDP per capita. Correcting for people’s incomes, satisfaction
with life is lowest in the rich states.
We discuss implications for the arbitrage theory that regions provide
equal utility and compensating differentials.